Each week during the wildfire season, Dr. Mike Flannigan will share a five- to 10-day fire weather outlook for Canada. This is a first step in developing a national early warning system for wildfire in Canada. The fire weather outlook will be posted every Tuesday.
Mike Flannigan is the scientific director of the Institute for Wildfire Science, Adaptation, and Resiliency as well as the BC Innovation Research Chair in Predictive Services, Emergency Management and Fire Science at Thompson Rivers University.
View bioWeekly Outlook | August 15-20, 2026 Issued August 11, 2026
All information provided below is reported at the time of publication and may not reflect more recent updates.
Current fire situation2026 Litmus Test: Results Are In
I have always said that there would be active fire years in Canada but there would also be cooler, wetter and thus quieter fire seasons. I still believe this holds true on a regional basis. For example, it is possible that Ontario will have a quiet fire season next year. However, after three consecutive very active fire seasons from 2023 to 2025 (2023 was record-breaking), with no analogue in our modern fire history, I began to question whether quiet fire seasons at the national scale were still a reasonable expectation. At the start of this fire season, I viewed 2026 as a litmus test. If it proved to be yet another active season, I would start saying that we should expect a significant fire season every year.
Canada is a large country, and our fire seasons are getting longer so now I argue that it is likely that somewhere in Canada we will see episodes of dry fuels, ignitions and extreme fire weather (hot, dry and windy conditions). The 2026 fire season is not yet over, but the litmus test results are in: 2026 is an active, impactful fire season with significant area burned and wide-ranging impacts. We have burned over 4 million ha (an area larger than twice the size of Lake Ontario) and the recent Bald Range Fire is a striking example of those impacts. Figure 1 shows a GOES-West satellite loop from Friday, August 7th, capturing the explosive growth of the Bald Range Fire.
Fire weather outlook August 15-20
Fire activity in southern BC and parts of NWT will continue during the outlook period, as these regions remain dry or mostly dry (Figure 2). Over the next several days, BC will see some cooler weather with showers and thunderstorms, but the rainfall amounts will not be sufficient enough to quell the fire danger, and lightning is forecast, so new fire starts are expected. Fire activity may also increase in northern Saskatchewan and northern Quebec. Figure 2 also shows little or no rainfall forecast across much of the western United States, suggesting fire activity there will continue over the coming weeks.
An updated drought map for Canada (Figure 3) shows parts of BC, the NWT, SK, ON, QC and Labrador as abnormally dry or in drought. Given the seasonal forecasts discussed below, active fires could return to regions beyond BC and the NWT.
Figure 2. ECMWF 120-hour Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF) August 20th, 2026.
Figure 3. Canadian drought conditions as of July 31st, 2026. | Current drought conditions - agriculture.canada.ca
A significant upper ridge may build over western Canada during the 10-15 day forecast period. It is too early to have confidence in this signal but is worth monitoring.
A look ahead Seasonal Forecasts
Updated seasonal forecasts of temperature and precipitation are now available, and the outlook for BC is concerning. Figure 4 shows the 2m temperature probability for September; above-normal temperatures are likely across Canada, with BC very likely to be warmer than normal. Figure 5 shows the temperature probability for September – November across North America, with nearly all of Canada likely to be above normal. Figure 6 shows the probability of below-or above-normal precipitation and parts of Canada from northwestern Ontario to BC are likely to be drier than normal. Thus, I expect a long and active autumn fire season.
Podcast
Last week I had the opportunity to discuss wildfire for over 20 minutes on the CBC Front Burner podcast. Some lines that my friends appreciated include:
“We should be more proactive”
“Having an early warning system -- we do it for hurricanes. Why don't we do it for fire?”
If interested, you can check out the podcast here.
Weekly forecast history
July 2026
Questions?We have the answers
Questions, including media requests for Mike Flannigan, can be emailed to wildfire@tru.ca.
Want to keep up with fire weather and fire activity? Check out @mikeflannigan.bsky.social.
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